Workshop Program (PDF)

Tresidder Building, Oak East room


Day 1



March 26th

Time Session Authors Title
8:00 AM Registration
8:20 AM Welcome, meeting purpose, and overview Jack Baker
Quantifying and communicating uncertainties
(Moderator: Ton Vrouwenvelder)
8:40 AM Stuart Reid Confidence and risk
9:00 AM Ross Corotis Risk communication with generalized uncertainty and linguistics
9:20 AM Armen Der Kiureghian, Ove Ditlevsen Epistemic or aleatory? Does it matter?
9:40 AM Bruce Ellingwood Quantifying and communicating uncertainties in seismic risk assessment
10:00 AM Discussion  
10:15 AM Break
Risk acceptance for existing structures
(Moderator: Bruce Ellingwood)
10:45 AM Dimitris Diamantidis, Paolo Bazzurro Target safety criteria for existing structures
11:05 AM Renee Lee, Anne Kiremidjian Efficient seismic risk assessment and retrofit prioritization model for transportation networks
11:25AM Ryan Williams, Paolo Gardoni, Joseph Bracci Decision analysis for seismic retrofit of structures
11:45 AM Discussion
12:00 PM Lunch
Calibrating design codes and obtaining target risk levels
(Moderator: Michael Faber)
1:20 PM Peter Tanner, Angel Arteaga Structural safety requirements based on notional risks associated with current practice
1:40 PM Torgeir Moan Development of accidental collapse limit state criteria for offshore structures
2:00 PM Niels Lind, Mahesh Pandey, Jatin
Flood control and societal capacity to commit resources
2:20 PM Brian Meacham Using risk as a basis for establishing tolerable performance: an approach for building regulation
2:40 PM Yasuki Ohtori, Hiroshi Soraoka, Tomoyoshi Takeda Calibration of safety factors for seismic stability of foundation grounds and surrounding
slopes in nuclear power sites,
3:00 PM Discussion
3:15 PM Break
3:45 PM Break-out session: risk acceptance success stories
4:30 PM Close
7:00 PM Dinner: Stanford Faculty Club

Day 2



March 27th

Time Session Authors Title
Advanced uncertainty modeling for risk calculations
(Moderator: Ove Ditlevsen)
8:30 AM Abbie Liel, Curt Haselton, Gregory Deierlein, Jack Baker Assessing the seismic collapse risk of reinforced concrete frame structures, including effects of modeling uncertainties
8:50 AM Daniel Straub, Armen Der Kiureghian Risk acceptance in deteriorating structural systems
9:10 AM Ton Vrouwenvelder Failure consequences in flood engineering
9:30 AM K. Nishijima, Marc Maes, Jean Goyet, Michael Faber Acceptance Criteria for Components of Complex Systems using Hierarchical System Models
9:50 AM Discussion
10:10 AM Break

Considerations beyond expected costs
(Moderator: Ross Corotis)

10:40 AM Terje Haukaas Risk measures beyond expected cost for decision making in performance-based earthquake engineering
11:00 AM Michael Faber, Matthias Schubert Decision making subject to aversion of low frequency high consequences event
11:20 AM Des Hartford Justification of risk-taking through reasoning, reasonableness and practicability
11:40 AM Ove Ditlevsen, Peter Friis-Hansen Cost and benefit including life, limb and environmental damage measured in time units
12:00 AM Discussion
12:20 PM Lunch

Risk assessment and risk acceptance for complex systems(Moderator: Anne Kiremidjian)

2:00 PM Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio Risk assessment of dynamic urban infrastructures
2:20 PM Sei’ichiro Fukushima,
Tsuyoshi Takada
Probabilistic Comparison of Seismic Design Response Spectra,
2:40 PM Auguste Boissonnade Modeling demand surge
3:00 PM Junho Song, Won Hee Kang Risk-quantification of complex systems by matrix-based system reliability method
3:20 PM Discussion
3:40 PM Break
4:00 PM Break-out session: practical and research needs to promote risk-based tools
5:00 PM Summary of break out sessions, consensus points, and future directions
5:30 PM Close, reception at Stanford Faculty Club




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